Monday, September 13, 2010
Prediction on Health Care Costs
It appears that the debate over health care expenditures is not over yet. Paul Krugman in his blog disagree with the calculation of the trends of health care costs from 2009 to 2019 as predicted by Ezra Klein. Certainly, Ezra is right to take account on his estimates the coverage of 35 million people for health insurance by 2014, his estimates for downward trend beyond 2014 due to cost minimization efforts seems questionable. Paul Krugman's claim for reduced cost during this period by switching to near-universal coverage deserve prominence. I wonder if you all agree with the predictions made on the cited posts.
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I'll agree with you. I think the Economy is already unstable and by giving people free health care will really make the Economy even worst off.
ReplyDeleteI do not agree with the fact that the cost will go down after 2014. Cost minimization may not work like that and the health care cost will go up. So i agree with Paul Krugman's universal health care program
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIn the long run health care cost should decrease. For reasons like, there will be less flooding of ER's with people who can't afford primary care. I agree that there will be an initial high cost but in time spending should decrease as our society becomes healthier and better educated.
ReplyDeleteI do believe that costs will go down after 2014. The whole purpose of universal health care is to decrease spending and have huge savings in the years to come. If neither happen, insuring another 35 million people will just have been a waste of money and will worsen the budget.
ReplyDeleteI’m not certain if 2014 would be a long enough time for health care cost to go down, if the universal health care plan is implemented. On theory, universal health care would allow people to practice preventive care, which should lower the cost of health care in the long run. But I think it would take a lot longer than just four to five years to see the cost of health care going down.
ReplyDeleteOne of the fundamentals of economics is that whenthe price if something is lowered, the quantity demanded increases. Inthe same manner, if the price of healthcare is lowered (in this case subsidized), the more people will see the doctor. That means instead of only a small percentage of the population contributing to the healthcare industry, there will be a larger number of people contributing (ie spending money), which in turns to more nurses, doctors, pharmacists being needed, so it might take longer than five years to overcome the initial costs of implementing subsidized healthcare, but it's definitely worth the money.
ReplyDeleteI think that by 2014 the health care costs are still going to be on the rise because of the demand factor. People that never had health care benefits are going to flood into hospitals and ER's as much as they can to take advantage of the system. So i believe that the cost will take more then 10 years for in order for it to come down.
ReplyDeleteI believe that universal health care will lead to an increase in health care costs after 2014. The cost of health care is increasing almost every year now, and it doesnt make sense that prices would go down after demand increases in 2014 when health care becomes required for everyone.
ReplyDeleteI do not agree that the health care costs will decrease by 2014. I still agree with the fact that our economy is still widely unstable and that it is going to need more time.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree that the health care cost will decrease by 2014. It's already 2010, and not that much has changed, and I don't think that it will change in the years coming. I think that it would take a longer time for the economy to turn itself around. Not just a couple of years. That includes the cost of health care. I agree with what Samantha Haddad said about how the price of health care is increasing every year and it really doesn't make sense if the prices go down. And these coming years are no different.
ReplyDelete-Bindiya Patel
I disagree with the fact that health care cost will reduce by 2014.Economy is still not recovered from recession completely so I think it will take time to see any decrease in health care cost atleast upto 7 or 8 yrs.As we are already seeing that health care cost is increasing day by day and in future also it ll increase.I think universal health care plan may work.
ReplyDeleteKena Patel
In my opinion health care costs are only going to rise due to the new advncements in medicine. With the 35 million people addition to the health care coverage it is only going to be worse. People who might not be making an ER trip due to lack of insurence now, will be more willing to go in once this new health care kicks in. There will be more people going to the doctor and the ER for minor issues that don't need professional medical attention.
ReplyDeleteElisabeth Ekkel
Am really not sure what will happen in regards to the cost of Health Care;however am just hoping for the best and that the economy on a whole will turn out well for the sake of everyone.
ReplyDeleteStacy
I think that it is possible that the health care will go down after 2014. When it comes to getting sick or a broken bone you go to the doctor weather you can pay for it or not. Somebody, from what I understand, the hospitals pick up the slack. Because of this the hospitals charge a bit more making health care more costly. Now that somebody will be picking up the tab that factor may be enough to lower cost. Not only that but I don't think there will be that big of an increase in people going to the doctor just because now they can. Even if they do so what! these people most likely will be going to the doctor anyways and if people are sick and cant afford health care is it so bad help them out its not like they are stealing tax payer dollars to get a back massage.
ReplyDelete-Ari Jacobovitz
I fully agree with the idea of implementing universal health care coverage. Currently, the US is one of the few industrialized countries that does not have a universal health care system. If such a system is implemented, everyone will have equal access to health care, regardless of socio-economic standing. A lot of money would be required to initiate such a system; however, the future outcome would be tremendously beneficial to the entire US economy. Overcoming the initial costs for universal coverage would take a lot more than five years though, as there would be huge cost inputs for building new medical facilites, hiring trained professionals, etc. All in all, with the support of goverment and tax payers, us, we can together build an inclusive health care system.
ReplyDelete-Reekan Honest
I don't think health care costs will go down in just 4 or 5 years. I think it will take longer than that. So I think there should be Universal Health care!
ReplyDeleteMorin Khan
The economy is already extremely unbalanced and unstable and by giving out free health care I think it will become even more chaotic. Initially it sounds like a good idea and maybe years down the line it might end up working out but right now with the economy in the situation that it is in I do not think this will not be the best idea
ReplyDeleteBrittany Chretien
I agree with Klein, the health care cost will have large increase in 2014 when 32.5 million people get coverage, but then it will level off. I think in the long run the health care expenditure will be lower since the law passed because it will decrease that cost that goes into the emergency care that is given to individuals who do not have insurance before the law was passed.
ReplyDeleteLeyia Getachew
In a perfect world universal health care would a great solution for health care expenditures. On account that we don’t live in a perfect world I believe universal health care is somewhat a bad approach. Providing every citizen with medical insurance will cause an increase in demand for health care. Having that said, the demand for supply will increase and the only way to account for its cost is to rise in taxes. Therefore, the cost of health care will escalate past its current expenditures and there will not be any decreases in cost anytime soon.
ReplyDeletei believe that making health care universal has its pro's and con's. the pro's to it is that everyone without insurance can go to the doctor without a problem. the con's to it is that if health care is going to be free then where will they money come from for the health care they will probably rise the taxes. canada has free health care with restrictions if you are not extremely sick or need surgery right away then you have to wait sometimes it can be months but in regards to that they have high taxes.
ReplyDeleteErika Brown
I don't see the cost will be any lower by the near future, probably for one main reason. That is the technology. Technology true has contributed in terms of the inputs and making the process easier and perhaps more accurate. But one major problem is addressed when we are talking about the medical equipments and machines.
ReplyDeleteThose devices, will be used for everyone either if the person under a health-care, insurance or medicaid. At some point, there will be patients using them under the emergency state, where they cannot afford paying the insurance or the bill by the hospital. At that time, the equipment will be used into its optimal perfect sense.
Abdullah Alessa
as of now no one can afford health care so receiving free health care is a good idea. the people that are the sickest are the ones that cannot afford health care and go to the doctors on a daily basis. i feel as the economy is still goin thru this hard time of recovering from the recession they should continue to give fee health care and as the economy starts to alot better when people are getting jobs again and can afford to pay for it then they should charge again for health care. and as far as the prices all the years ive been born nothing has decreased in price for ex gas. gas use to be cheap but as the years go on the prices increaes just like health care will do
ReplyDeleteNataiya Taliaferro
I think its possible for the health care to begin to go down, obivously it will be interesting to where the economy is at by 2014. I believe in universal health care, everyone has the right to receieve health care. Canada is a great example of free health care, they seem to not have a problem with it. I think the costs are rediculous, ive heard to many stories of people owing thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars due to medical bills who have no jobs and barely making ends meet.
ReplyDeleteJoel Ferguson
I personally don't like the idea of Universal health care here in America. Sure it would be good for the poor people who don't make very much to get "free" health care, but for the rest of us who work real jobs for a living will see a large increase in the amount that we are taxed. I personally think that the cost of non-universal health care (ie. if the regular insurance companies are still around) will increase because of the lack of customers, which will cause many people to lose their jobs and therefore bringing the economy back down.
ReplyDeleteAdam Kirvan
Universal coverage is a good thing. It would insure 35 million people, who were previously uninsured, which I believe would increase the health of these 35 million people that are newly insured. The reason I say that is because now they can go to the doctor whenever they are sick and get treated; previously they could not.
ReplyDeleteAjdin Alic
The economy is ok right now as far as health care. But what if you, (yourself) loose healthcare coverage and you are denied healthcare from another company because of some ridiculous policy they have. You are very sick and on the verge of dieing if you do not recieve open heart sergery. You would want the U.S. to have universal healthcare if it was you who was in the need of it. So do not just be selfish and think about yourself because you are covered, think about others too. Maybe someone in your family may not have health care covereage an you wouldn't want them to go sick neither. (speaking Hypothtical)and(In Example)
ReplyDeleteI agree that the policy will help in the long run. It is good to have health care but, I don't think that many people will have to use it very often. Having health care is more of a safety precaution for people in case they need it. I'm sure it will raise taxes in the beginning, but when people don't use it very much in the first couple years it will help the economy. So much unspent money will be left over for the economy.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Klein that spending will go up in 2014 because we're covering 30 million new people but I don’t imagine it going down because patients aren't expected to limit their drug costs and doctor visits if health care is free. This would make the cost of health care at least double. If someone is uninsured it doesn’t necessarily mean they cannot receive health care because there are government run hospitals and non-profit groups that provide services to uninsured Americans. Also, it is illegal to refuse emergency medical assistance to anyone whether they have insurance or not.
ReplyDeleteAnthony Vitale
don't think that it will change in the years coming. I think that it would take a longer time for the economy to turn itself around. Not just a couple of years. That includes the cost of health care. I agree with what Samantha Haddad said about how the price of health care is increasing every year and it really doesn't make sense if the prices go down. And these coming years are no different.
ReplyDeleteBrittni Crawford
ReplyDeleteI think if you give health care benefits the economy would be ok not having health care as totally free. It should be estimated by your income on how much you should pay for healthcare and than by 2014 the economy wouldn't need a fund to recover the millions of dollars that would be lost because of free health care. I would agree and disagree with the blog.
Brittni Crawford
Because there are still 3 years before this new health coverage goes into effect, I believe there will be a lot of changes and modifications made to it. What has been said to happen now is not completely set in stone. I do not see the costs of healthcare and medicines to go down anytime soon. You have to think that that is how people earn a living. They want to be able to make the highest profit possible. A universal healthcare system may or may not be better for our country. The only thing certain is that there is nothing for certain. A prediction is just that. We have to take things day by day to see how it really plays out.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, I think there is a possibility that the cost of health care may decrease by 2014, but as it's looking right now, there's a high chance that it won't. Thats 3 full years away and by then there may be tons of technology improvements as well as more sickness. It's hard to say what can happen in the next few years. But from the one standpoint, with everyone receiving health care now, it may make us healthier as a society which will ultimately reduce the cost and need of health care.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how the price of health care can decline if there is an increase in those being covered. Maybe after awhile the price can decline because right now there's so many individuals that neglect their body and health because they don't have health care. With those individuals receiving some sort of health care they will be more inclined to go to the doctor's before something serious happens. Also, they'd be more willing to get prescriptions. So, I believe that the price of health care won't decline as more individuals are provided a universal health care plan.
ReplyDeleteBecky Sweeney
I think that the cost will be higher after 2014 simply because there will be new devices and new tech that is used in the hospitals and i still think that most hospitals are commercial business more than a place to provide health care. and with the new devices and new tech health care costs are going to rise
ReplyDeleteAhmad Alkadeeb
I believe that the health care costs will not decrease by 2014. It is the end of 2010 and there hasn't been much change. I think by 2014 there will be a lot more improvements so that the cost for health care might increase because of the increase in the technology.
ReplyDeleteBina Patel
I think that the prices for health care will not go down by 2014. In my opinion health care costs are only going to rise due to the new advancements in technology and medicine. My uncle in Canada had to be on a waiting list for 2 years for a heart surgery, because they had universal health care. Who says in 2014 that won't happen to the United States?
ReplyDelete-Eric Platte
I think with universal health care prices won't go down initially because I believe there will be floods of people taking advantage of it. However, I believe over time health care prices will go down.
ReplyDelete-Ryan Katz
I think cost will decrease in the long run because the point of universal heath care is for the cost of health care to go down. so if they did their research and predicted that it will go down that I don't see why it wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteKim Brooks
I do not care for Ezra Klein’s prediction because it means nothing since it does not show the real cost we will be faced with at each point in the future. It feels as if he is assuming that the policy will remain the same which is unrealistic. This real cost will be formed by new policies which will surely be introduced to adjust (and hopefully fix/improve) the system now in place. These policies can change how pharmaceutical companies are run and how health issuance is to be managed which can have a larger influence on cost in a shorter period of time then this optimization that Klein is referencing.
ReplyDeleteAs for Paul Krugman's claim, I believe that there are other ways of achieving cost savings without implementing “near-universal coverage” but I do agree that it does make “our society more decent”.
-Rafael Schaffa
I agree with Klein that in the long run healthcare spending will go down due to increased coverage. As more people have basic access to healthcare, we will see less extreme medical cases which require more funding such as major surgeries. However, I don't think we will be able to see this decrease as soon as 2014. I think it will take more time for the benefits of near-universal healthcare to become evident and obviously, in the short term, we will see an increase in healthcare spending.
ReplyDelete- Andrew Joseph
I am completely against the health care reform. Even if I thought that it would eventually decrease spending in the long run (which i don't), this whole thing isn't even about health care and it never was. Its always been about the government telling people they don't have a choice anymore about what they choose to buy or not buy. Forcing Americans to buy health insurance because "they'll need it eventually" isn't what freedom in this country is about. This administration has just managed to dress this bill up with hundreds of pages full of things that the voters never even had access to. So Americans got fooled big time, and its starting to catch up with them by the looks of the bill's approval rate (and also the impending recall).
ReplyDelete-Jacob Losen
I dont think that health care prices will go down by 2014. I do see advancement occuring due to technolog and other factors but prices will not see a decrease anytime soon. Universal coverage may possibly decrease issues in health since more people will be insured prevention rates can increase.
ReplyDelete-Alyssia Jernigan
Astrit Mehmeti
ReplyDeleteInflation is going up every day. We are all paying double in gas, and even though no one seems to slow down on their driving and drive less. Because its a requirement, people must go to work, must buy groceries since public transportation is at the very minimum. Now they have forgot the $1.50 or less gas prices, everyone have become used to $3.00. This same concept is relevant to all the other necessities of the practical daily life. Same thing with healthcare prices once they are up they will stay up and will continue to go up even after 2014 until they reach a critical point and remain there until the countries standards as a whole and peoples salaries increase. People will get used to these higher prices also just like they got used to the higher gas prices.
I do not think that prices will decrease by 2014. They will decrease, but it will take longer than that because the economy has been in such a bad stage that it needs a longer period to recover. The thought of universal health care is a very good one because more people will be insured. Having coverage for a larger amount of people will decrease spending because the people who weren't covered previously will have access to more medical treatments, but as I stated before, it will take longer than just 2014.
ReplyDelete-Rita Murillo
I think health care costs should decrease but they should not be free. Health care is like auto insurance. You have to have it and spend all this money but you only need it if something happens. So in that case health insurance should be cheaper. I am glad that my health is covered for some years while Im in school and its free. But looking at it if I did have to pay I think if they lowered it the economy can start picking back up and people can save some extra money.
ReplyDeleteMike Truman
With millions of Americans without the benefit of health care, we forget who ultimately ends up paying for these uninsured Americans. The ultimate responsibility falls upon those whom are insured, our premiums increase, while the profits of insurance companies reside at an all time high. With the Health Care Bill, we now have a system that will in the long-run pay for itself. There will be a decrease in the number of uninsured Americans clogging the Hospitals, and yet they will receive what should be a constitutional right, health care!
ReplyDelete-Simon Foster
I am hoping to see a decrease of health care costs, but in fact I think that it will increase because the economic situation is very bad, which makes the government wants to finish their objective needs before getting into this matter. Therefore, I think that it won’t decrease by the time of 2014.
ReplyDeleteI believe that in the initial phase health care cost will increase but in the long term it will end by becoming cheaper. If people are able to get their ailments treated before it becomes a serious threat it will save money on the bigger issue. For instance annual check-ups to prevent diabetes rather than waiting for it to happen and taking expensive insulin shots.
ReplyDelete-Donald McDowell
I believe that universal health care is a horrible idea and that we are not out of our recession yet so it will not level off in 2014. Also I believe that we should be able to pick what doctor we would like to treat us and universal health care would limit us to certain doctors, and would due to keeping the price down the quality of health care would also decrease.
ReplyDeleteI believe that by 2014 health care costs will decrease because people will be able to afford primary health care and will not need further more costly treatment.
ReplyDelete-Karolina Biernacka
I do not agree with giving everybody free health care, however i do believe in giving it to those in need who can not afford their own health care. The economy is in no place to destabilize it more with free health care. Giving free health care means raising taxes and many people can not afford that today.
ReplyDeleteNour Hijazi